Wishful thinking and guesswork are behind the daft 2am lockout policy.
PREMIER John Brumby probably wasn’t expecting a backlash this big.
Nearly 30,000 distressed drinkers have signed just one of the many Facebook petitions opposing the 2am lockout — the Victorian Government’s new policy that will ban entry to bars, pubs and clubs in the inner city [...]

This brings up a question about effectiveness of treatment in general: How do we know it works?
We often say that something works, at least when we talk about health problems, because we got better. But suppose we would have gotten better anyway?
It looks like cause and effect, but it may not be.
The first group did [...]